Budapesti Gazdaságtudományi Egyetem

Az LXII. Georgikon Napok alkalmából megrendezett nemzetközi tudományos konferencia előadás keretében került bemutatásra az élelmiszer eredetű megbetegedések és 10 éghajlati tényező összefüggéseinek többváltozós regressziós vizsgálata, Magyarné Horváth Kinga - Kocsis Tímea - Kovácsné Székely Ilona kutatása,  Relationship between the number of food - borne diseases and climate change in Hungary címmel(67. o.) 

Absztrakt: 

Our research aims to discover the possible correlation between climate change and food-borne diseases. The Hungarian Meteorological Service provided data from CarpatClim database for 10 climate parameters for the computations. The National Health Service provided the data of food-borne diseases for the period 1961-2010. This was correlated to the 10 climate parameters as predictors and backward elimination method for multiple regression was applied. At 5% significance level there is significant correlation between the annual number of food-borne diseases and the annual mean temperature (this relationship is negative, that could result from the tendencies of the time series of the varaibles). Determination coefficient was low (23%), therefore the dataset was split in two parts (25-25 years), and it can be seen that the effect of the annual mean temperature became significant in the second part of the examined time period. Because of this reason we examined the last 30 years of the time period (19812010) as 30 years are the minimal interval for climate researches. R2 (determination coefficient) increased to 34%, and the only significant prdictor was the annual mean temperature at 5% significance level. In case the significance level would be fixed at 10%, the five-days precipitation maximum (RX5) remains also as a significant predictor and R2 increases to 43%. The diagnostic check and the control of preliminary requirements of the multiple regression were checked and fulfill the requirements. 

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